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How to Predict the Unpredictable

How to Predict the Unpredictable PDF Author: William Poundstone
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781780747200
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 304

Book Description
From paper-scissors-stone to the stock market, the economics and psychology that will help you play to win..

Predicting the Unpredictable

Predicting the Unpredictable PDF Author: Susan Elizabeth Hough
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400883547
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 280

Book Description
Why seismologists still can't predict earthquakes An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.

Predicting the Unpredictable

Predicting the Unpredictable PDF Author: Johanna Rothman
Publisher: Pragmatic Bookshelf
ISBN: 1680504282
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 126

Book Description
" If you have trouble estimating cost or schedule for your projects, you are not alone. The question is this: who wants the estimate and why? The definition of estimate is to guess. But too often, the people who want estimates want commitments. Instead of a commitment, you can apply practical and pragmatic approaches to developing estimates and then meet your commitments. You can provide your managers with the information they want and that you can live with. Learn how to use different words for your estimates and how to report an estimate that includes uncertainty. Learn who should and should not estimate. Learn how to update your estimate when you know more about your project. Regain estimation sanity. Learn practical and pragmatic ways to estimate schedule or cost for your projects. "

How to Predict the Unpredictable

How to Predict the Unpredictable PDF Author: William Poundstone
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1780744080
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 304

Book Description
We are hard-wired to believe that the world is more predictable than it is. We chase ‘winning streaks’ that are often just illusions, and we are all too predictable exactly when we try hardest not to be. In the 1970s, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky coined the phrase ‘representativeness’ to describe the psychology of this behaviour. Since then representativeness has been used by auditors to catch people fiddling their tax returns and by hedge fund managers to reap billions from the emotions of small investors. Now Poundstone for the first time makes these techniques fun, easy, and profitable for everyone, in the everyday situations that matter. You’ll learn how to tackle multiple choice tests, what internet passwords to avoid, how to up your odds of winning the office Premier League sweepstakes, and the best ways to invest your money.

Predicting the Unpredictable?

Predicting the Unpredictable? PDF Author: Terence C. Mills
Publisher: London School of Economics and Political Science
ISBN:
Category : Investment analysis
Languages : en
Pages : 46

Book Description
The author discusses how research in financial markets has evolved and whether the application of theories can ever be translated into 'excess profits'.

Predicting the Unpredictable

Predicting the Unpredictable PDF Author: Susan Elizabeth Hough
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691173303
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 276

Book Description
An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.

The Physics of Finance

The Physics of Finance PDF Author: James Owen Weatherall
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781780720876
Category : Prediction theory
Languages : en
Pages : 286

Book Description
"He takes us on a lively journey from fin-de-siècle Paris to Rat Pack-era Las Vegas, from wartime government labs to Yippie communes, showing how some of the finest scientific minds of the last century came to construct the sophisticated models on which modern securities trading is based"--Back cover.

Aid on the Edge of Chaos

Aid on the Edge of Chaos PDF Author: Ben Ramalingam
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191503436
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 480

Book Description
Many agree that the foreign aid system - which today involves virtually every nation on earth - needs drastic change. But there is much conflict as to what should be done. In Aid on the Edge of Chaos, Ben Ramalingam argues that what is most needed is the creative and innovative transformation of how aid works. Foreign aid today is dominated by linear, mechanistic ideas that emerged from early twentieth century industry, and are ill-suited to the world we face today. The problems and systems aid agencies deal with on a daily basis have more in common with ecosystems than machines: they are interconnected, diverse, and dynamic; they cannot be just simply re-engineered or fixed. Outside of aid, social scientists, economists, business leaders, and policy makers have started applying innovative and scientific approaches to such problems, informed by ideas from the 'new science' of complex adaptive systems. Inspired by these efforts, aid practitioners and researchers have started experimenting with such approaches in their own work. This book showcases the experiences, insights, and often remarkable results of innovative thinkers and practitioners who are working to bring these approaches into the mainstream of aid. From transforming child malnutrition to rethinking economic growth, from building peace to reversing desertification, from rural Vietnam to urban Kenya, the ideas of complex systems thinking are starting to be used to make foreign aid more relevant, more appropriate, and more catalytic. Aid on the Edge of Chaos argues that such ideas and approaches should play a vital part of the transformation of aid. Aid should move from being an imperfect post-World War II global resource transfer system, to a new form of global cooperation that is truly fit for the twenty-first century.

The Physics of Wall Street

The Physics of Wall Street PDF Author: James Owen Weatherall
Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
ISBN: 0547317271
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 310

Book Description
A Harvard scholar argues that mathematical models can provide solutions to current economic challenges, explaining that the economic meltdown of 2008 was based on a misunderstanding of scientific models rather than on the models themselves.

Symmetry and Its Discontents

Symmetry and Its Discontents PDF Author: S. L. Zabell
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521444705
Category : Language Arts & Disciplines
Languages : en
Pages : 304

Book Description
This volume contains essays on the history and philosophy of probability and statistics.